Scenario Planning is a proven technique for discovering tacit assumptions and biases that blind you to future possibilities - good or ill - that can affect the survival and profitability of your enterprise.
The scenario exercises in these papers employ the methodology described by Peter Schwartz of the Global Business Network in his 1996 book The Art of the Long View. In addition to being enjoyable reading, these eBooks show scenarios written in 2001-2002 targeted at a time frame close to the present day, so you can assess how they would have affected your planning if you had access to them at the time they were written.
Rogue Wave:
The Synergistic
Convergence
of Multiple Disruptive
Technologies Learn More...
Window on the Future:
A Scenario Planning Primer Learn More...
Possible Futures of
Application Architectures Learn More...
Disruptive technologies and socioeconomic forces are combining their energies to create a synergistic convergence of multiple disruptive information technologies. I call this powerful effect the Rogue Wave. Written in 2001 and revised in early 2002 to reflect the impact of the 9-11 tragedy, this paper explores possible alternative futures for the technology of the Web as shaped by the Rogue Wave over the period 2002-2006.
A concise introduction to scenario planning, with a nontrivial worked-out example focused in the future of handheld computing.
"Application architecture is the key enabler-and key limiting factor-of the value an IT product or service can provide. Recent developments in the field of application architecture promise tremendous improvements in productivity and quality. Electronic commerce and communities will be transformed over the next few years in ways we have yet to comprehend."
"What will the world of the XML developer look like in 2005, four years from now?" Written in early 2001, we explored this question as a scenario planning teaching exercise.